Hawaii Real Estate Experts

The latest Maui real estate statistics tell a clear story: the condo market has experienced a significant crash from its 2024 peak, with prices declining 34% over roughly 17 months. At the same time, the most recent data shows prices leveling off — raising the question of whether the worst is behind us. Here is a full breakdown of the numbers.

Maui Condo Price Decline: By the Numbers

Using a six-month rolling average of median sales prices, here is where the Maui condo market stands as of early 2026:

• Peak median condo price: $972,000 (August 2024)
• Most recent low: $642,500 (January 2026)
• Total decline from peak: approximately 34%
• Months of price stabilization: approximately 5 months
• Single-family home decline from peak: approximately 7%

If you define a market crash as a decline of 20% or more over a short period of time, the Maui condo market qualifies by that definition. For context, this data goes back to 2006. From 2012 onward, both condo and single-family home prices climbed steadily until peaking in August 2024. The condo market's 34% decline stands in stark contrast to the roughly 7% decline seen in single-family homes — a gap that is directly tied to the short-term rental regulatory environment created by Bill 9.

The most recent data does offer a cautiously encouraging signal: prices have been relatively flat for approximately five months, with a slight uptick in the last two months. A few months of flat prices does not confirm a trend reversal, and further declines remain possible, but the stabilization is notable given the sustained downward pressure of the prior year.

Inventory Levels: Elevated but Not Extreme

Maui real estate statistics on inventory show a meaningful increase in active listings since 2024. Key context:

• Inventory rose significantly from 2024 into 2025 and 2026
• However, inventory levels from 2022 to 2024 were abnormally compressed — well below historical norms
• Current listing levels are closer to what the Maui market looked like in prior cycles
• More supply combined with fewer active buyers has shifted negotiating power toward buyers

The increase in inventory is largely a normalization rather than a surge of distressed listings, but the practical effect is the same: buyers have more options and more leverage than at any point in recent years.

Sale Price vs. List Price: Buyers Are Negotiating

One of the most telling Maui real estate statistics right now is the average sale-to-list price ratio. In 2022, condos were actually selling above their asking price — a hallmark of the post-pandemic demand surge. That dynamic has fully reversed:

• In 2022: condos selling above asking price on average
• Currently: condos selling at approximately 94% of list price on average
• That means buyers are negotiating an average of 6% off the asking price
• This is one of the lowest sale-to-list ratios recorded for the Maui condo market
• Individual properties are being discounted significantly more than 6% in many cases

The power balance between buyers and sellers has shifted in a meaningful way that has not been seen in years. Buyers who understand this dynamic and are willing to negotiate are finding real room to move on price.

Bill 9 and the Short-Term Rental Market

Bill 9 is the single biggest regulatory factor affecting Maui real estate statistics today. In its current form, the law would phase out approximately half of Maui's short-term rental inventory. The majority of at-risk properties are condos, which explains much of the gap between condo and single-family price performance.

• Bill 9 would phase out roughly 50% of Maui's short-term rental inventory
• Most affected properties are in the condo segment
• Owners who relied on STR income to offset carrying costs face both reduced income and permit uncertainty
• Hotel-zoned condos are fully exempt from Bill 9 and face no regulatory risk

What's notable in the current Maui real estate statistics is that even hotel-zoned condos — which carry zero regulatory risk from Bill 9 — have declined substantially. This tells us that macro factors like higher interest rates, slower tourism, and general buyer hesitation are weighing on all condo segments, not just those directly exposed to the STR ban.

A real-world example: A studio unit at one of Maui's newer luxury resort properties (hotel zoning, built 2009) is currently listed at $1,118,000. That same unit sold for $1,575,000 in November 2023 — a decline of over 29% from its 2023 sale price, despite being completely protected from Bill 9.

STR Financing and Rental Income: What the Numbers Show

Beyond the regulatory picture, the investment economics of Maui short-term rental condos have shifted considerably. Higher mortgage rates combined with softer tourism and lower nightly rates have compressed returns significantly:

• All-cash buyers can expect approximately 2–3% ROI on rental income alone at current levels
• Buyers using a mortgage typically need to put at least 50% cash down to break even on rental income vs. expenses
• A few years ago, cash-flowing STR properties were achievable with a standard 25–30% down payment
• Buyers putting less than 50% down are likely to run a monthly deficit on rental income alone

The income case for buying a Maui STR condo purely as a rental investment is significantly weaker today than it was at the market's peak. That said, many buyers are not purchasing purely for rental yield — tax advantages, personal use, and long-term appreciation potential remain relevant factors in the decision.

What's Driving the Maui Condo Market Decline

Several overlapping pressures have contributed to the 34% decline and are keeping buyer activity soft. A complete picture of current Maui real estate statistics requires understanding all of them:

• Bill 9: The pending phase-out of roughly 50% of Maui's STR inventory has created uncertainty across the condo market
• Higher interest rates: Elevated mortgage rates have significantly reduced the pool of financed buyers
• Tourism softness: Lower visitor counts have reduced short-term rental income across the island
• Lahaina wildfire recovery: Ongoing since August 2023, the recovery continues to shape market sentiment and transaction activity
• Recent weather events: Abnormal storms and flooding have added negative sentiment to an already pressured market
• COVID aftereffects: The market has been navigating post-pandemic normalization alongside all of the above

Where the Maui Real Estate Market Stands Today

Here is a clean summary of the most current Maui real estate statistics:

• Condo median price is down 34% from its August 2024 peak
• Prices have been relatively flat for approximately 5 months, with a slight uptick in the last 2
• Single-family home prices are down only about 7% from their peak
• Inventory is elevated but consistent with historical norms — not a distressed flood of supply
• Buyers are negotiating an average of 6% off list price
• All-cash STR buyers are seeing approximately 2–3% rental income ROI
• Leveraged buyers need roughly 50% down to break even on rental income
• Bill 9 remains unresolved and continues to create uncertainty in the STR segment

The Maui real estate market — particularly the condo segment — is in a position that has not been seen in over a decade. Whether prices have bottomed or have another leg down remains to be seen. What is clear from the data is that buyer leverage is real, negotiating room exists, and the supply-demand balance has shifted in ways that favor informed, patient buyers with a long-term outlook.

If you want to stay current on Maui real estate statistics and market updates, subscribe to my YouTube channel for regular data-driven analysis. And if you're ready to explore what's available in the market right now, reach out directly — my team and I are happy to walk you through the numbers for any specific property or area you're considering.